The only thing worse than NFL Week 18 DFS is having to write your NFL Week 18 DFS article *TWICE*. Yeah, I don’t know what happened around here, but somehow I had this whole slate wrote up and then **** poof **** that article is gone.
Or maybe it was all just a dream. Maybe the whole season was just a dream. Nah, the more likely scenario here is that my original article had too many bad puns and jokes about this slate and the content God’s said nah, you can’t do that sir. So, let’s try this again, shall we?
Slate Approach
My approach to Week 18 is to identify my ‘Ambush’ plays as guys I have confidence are going to play a good amount of time, perform well and have some incentive beyond financial reasons to play. All of the chasing guys hitting contract numbers is for the fish, I’m not here to chase all of that in terms of DFS. So the way the article is broken down I am giving my top play(s) at each position as the Ambush plays as always and then a list of ‘other consideration’ options which fit well for taking shots on Week 18. Guys who might shine in an increased role or could be worth throwing some extra lineups on.
The Slate Motivation
Here’s the categories I have for this slate in terms of games and their relevance listed below. I would caution we’re going to see 1 or 2 of these “oh, they gotta win against a bad team” games wind up coming down to the final play or even an upset. The games listed in GREEN are ones which I think have the best potential for some shocking results.
Games that really don’t matter:
- Jets at Patriots
- Browns at Bengals
- Chiefs at Chargers … Worst game of the season
- Broncos at Raiders … Ok, this is bad too.
Games that kinda matter, but not really:
- Eagles at Giants … It’s not happening. The Eagles will probably cover, but they are not dropping a 50 spot today folks.
- Rams at Niners … These coaches like each other and will do each other a favor and run… false start…. let play clock run… run, run… run. go home.
- Cowboys at Commanders … The Cowboys could hang 30 in the first Quarter, but I would just play their D/ST.
Games that DO matter for one side:
- Bucs at Panthers
- Vikings at Lions
- Jaguars at Titans
- Seahawks at Cardinals
Games that matter all around:
- Falcons at Saints … This smells like a 23-15 final score and my sucker ass is gonna jam 3+ players from it. Sue me.
- Bears at Packers … It matters to the Bears folks. They’re playing well of late and will treat it properly
Ambush Play
- Jordan Love … One thing that happens in Week 18 is obviously the excess value that can open up. But unless Matt Flynn is walking through those doors, I don’t see a reason for us to bite into the value from the Quarterback position. So give me Love, who is playing well and playing in a must win scenario at home. Chicago’s defense has improved but still can be beat in the secondary.
Other Considerations
- Kyler Murray … I really do like Murray here. He’s been okay since coming off IR and the rushing ability from QB’s usually does well vs Seattle.
- Justin Fields … He has to do it with his legs and in the colder temps should have more rush opps for that.
Ambush Play(s)
- Kenneth Walker … Walker or the WR. Walker or the WR. Walker scores, gimme Walker, I don’t love it, but this is a yucky RB slate IMO.
- Rachaad White … I honestly believe in my gut that Carolina gives Tampa a hard time this week and they do it defensively first, but that won’t limt White’s volume and ground efficiency getting him into a good spot.
Other Considerations
- Javonte Williams … Definitely some justification for going White on the other side in this game. It’s the forgotten ‘Dome’ environment game this weekend and one in which the RB have a good advantage.
- Jammal Williams … I am not expecting much from Kamara in this spot. It’s J-Will or Taysom
- Pierre Strong … I prefer this value over Jordan Mason value
- David Montgomery … Detroit will roar. Get it? Nevermind…
Ambush Play(s)
- Drake London … The Saints fixed some things that were a problem with their rush defense and the CB’s are playing well but there’s going to be a ton of voulme going to both London and Pitts in this game and London at his price is going to explode if he gets a touchdown.
- Jordan Addison … Another game in a dome and a game with some incentive here for both teams. I like Detroit to do well and put some pressure on the Vikings passing game, so Addison’s lower target PT/$ mark puts him on the list.
- Jayden Reed … Love’s guy and the proper WR to pair with him.
Other Considerations
- DeAndre Hopkins … If you are Tennessee you really have nothing to lose here going for the knock out of the Jaguars. The passing game should do well and I like Tannehill starting here to have a ‘remember me’ type performance to maybe get a starting gig in 2024 somewhere. Instead of Tannehill though, lets go for the WR that should get 8+ targets.
- Mike Evans
- Calvin Ridley
- Tyler Lockett … Death. Taxes. Lockett in Arizona.
- DJ Moore
- DJ Chark
- Wan’Dale Robinson
NOTE:
- Jaguars WR Christian Kirk is $3,000 for some retarded reason. He could suit up today. He would be a terrific value.
Ambush Play(s)
- Taysom Hill … This could be the final game that the Saints have the following players on their roster. Lattimore, Ramcyzk, Thomas, Kamara and Taysom. In this case though, Taysom is playing, he is healthy and he is playing his whipping children in the Falcons. Throw on top that the Saints backfield is really thin and we’re smashing Taysom here in a Saints must win at home.
Other Considerations
- Noah Gray
- Kyle Pitts
- Austin Hooper
Ambush Play(s)
- Dallas Cowboys … It’s Sam Howell
- Detroit Lions … No matter who the Vikings play at QB they are taking too many sacks of late. This is where Detroit can hit their number.
- NY Jets
Other Considerations
- Literally anyone
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Jordan Love
Kenneth Walker II
Drake London
Taysom Hill
BETS
Buccaneers/Panthers over 36.5
Lions -3.5
Jets ML
Falcons/Saints under 42.5
Eagles -4.5
Upsets …
Titans ML
Good luck everyone! Looking forward to a nice playoff field this year.