The NFL Week 14 set of games does not warrant too much of our attention and time, so lets be very direct about this from a DFS/betting perspective. There are better things to do with your Sunday my friends. It’s ugly… Bowl season cannot come fast enough.
WEATHER NOTES
Rams at Ravens: Windy, Rainy
FAVORITE GAMES
Bucs at Falcons
Vikings at Raiders
Bills at Chiefs
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Russell Wilson (DK: $5800, FD: $7400) … Love the Broncos, love Sean Payton to run it up on the Chargers and really like that the Chargers allow a 69% comp rate this season which is going to allow the Broncos to sustain drives and convert into touchdowns. Wilson throws 3 TD today.
REST OF THE LIST
Patrick Mahomes (KD: $7900, FD: $8400) … This is simply the pay up for a contrarian QB theory. Mahomes has been forgotten now with a “mediocre” season and that’s kinda weird to say. Buffalo’s defense doesn’t exactly … ah, you know what, I’m gonna stop myself right there and just not pull a Sean McDermott. Let’s just say Buffalo is D-O-N-E.
Geno Smith (DK: $5700, FD: $6700) … I believe one of the games which WILL live up to its higher point total on both sides is the ‘Hawks-Niners tilt. Geno gives us more confidence that he can provide value for his price and should do it more with his arm instead of handing it off like Purdy
Some heavy ownership this week is projected on Joe Mixon and Zack Moss going up against each other. In this game we have two bad rush defenses and two guys fairly affordable. Mixon has not been very consistent in 2023 which brings me pause on him posting another 20+ point game, but I cannot argue with his value. Moss sucks. The Colts are getting by with a really generous schedule and I don’t trust much about them or this game in general.
CMC is the other chalk. He doesn’t suck at football, but a 9200 RB cannot be played naked if you do in that game, get some Seattle exposure too.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Austin Ekeler (DK: $7600, FD: $7500) … I will gladly bite here. The Broncos rush defense has improved but cannot sustain this all season. The Chargers desperate hopes to make a late run need to get Ekeler going again and we’re finally seeing him at a reduced price and almost criminally low ownership
REST OF THE LIST
Alvin Kamara … This is a two man RB show this week and they have a banged up passing game as well. It’s Kamara left, Jammal Williams right and then a few passes to Juwan Johnson mixed in.
Joe Mixon, Zack Moss, CMC … Good chalk here this week unfortunately, we should lean more on Mixon then Moss, then CMC
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (DK: $4100, FD: $5500) … With or without Lockett in the lineup I believe the time for Seattle to make JSN a permanent primary weapon is now.
SAFE CORE OPTIONS
Courtland Sutton (DK: $6100, FD: $7200)
Rashee Rice (DK: $5400, FD: $6300)
Chris Godwin (DK: $6000, FD: $6100)
Drake London (DK: $4600, FD: $6400) … Because of high projected ownership we can’t consider London the Ambush play here, but I would be shocked if he didn’t have a good enough game.
VALUE
Marvin Mims (DK: $3300)
Jonathan Mingo (DK: $3500)
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Cole Kmet (DK: $4300, FD: $5600)
REST OF THE LIST
George Kittle (DK: $5900, FD: $6600)
Tyler Conklin (DK: $3000, FD: $4800)
Juwan Johnson (DK: $3300) … Olave is sick and Shaheed is banged up. Throw on top of that Taysom Hill likely sitting and I can’t imagine Juwan won’t find his way into a 3 to 4 catch game with ease.
Kansas City Chiefs … Love the Chiefs D/ST this week. Bring us all the Josh Allen turnovers.
Chicago Bears … Goff outdoors. Nuff said.
Cleveland Browns … The wind and rain could help out Cleveland’s defense and they probably shouldn’t need it.
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s):
- Austin Ekeler
The Ambush CORE:
- Wilson
- Ekeler
- JSN
- Sutton
Favorite Pay Up Spots:
- RB
Game Stacks:
- I love the 4pm window of games this week. The Hawks/Niners, Broncos/Chargers being the two favorites. I can’t quite make up my mind on trusting the Vikings/Raiders game.
Favorite Bets:
- Chiefs -1, Chiefs -3, Chiefs – whatever. Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs. This is a 31-10 game at some point in the second half, could turn into 45-10.
- Broncos/Chargers OVER 43.5
- Seahawks +11
- Broncos ML
Upset Calls:
- No major upsets