Happy Thanksgiving! the best holiday of the entire year in my mind and those who try to bash it are just jealous of its glory. We have three big spread games today and the first immediate thought that I and I am sure everyone out there had today is, why not just parlay the ML on the Lions, Cowboys and 49ers for close to -112 odds?
What could POSSIBLY go wrong with that scenario?
WEATHER NOTES
No issues. No snow in Dallas (gotta mention that, no?)
Normally I like to push out there that QB debates really wind up not mattering that much, but on a three game slate it can be a big deal obviously. Highest ownership will fall on Dak and Purdy but Jared Goff will not be far behind them.
I am ruling out Geno Smith as an option, and a good portion of the Seattle options as they’re all a little banged up on a short week and I don’t think they can do much against San Francisco’s defense tonight.
I’m not trusting Jordan Love a second week in a row, although he is DEFINITELY throwing a touchdown but it’s going to the Lions and he might throw two to them today.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Sam Howell (DK: $6200, FD: $7300) … He and Washington’s offense finally had a bummer game and what do you know, he still managed to go over 20 FPTS last week against the Giants. Go ahead and have fears about Dallas making him run for his life because in DFS that’ll be beneficial for us as he gets some rushing yards to add to the cherry on top today.
Two guys who should get the primary workload today are AJ Dillon (Aaron Jones OUT) and Zach Charbonnet (Kenneth Walker OUT). Neither of them has a negative match-up and very little competition compared to other options going today. Is there some logic to just taking both and moving on to WR? Absolutely.
The ultimate question with RB today is will anyone finish with 3 TD’s to break the slate and my answer is no.
THE AMBUSH RANKINGS
- Christian McCaffrey (DK: $8700, FD: $9800) … All CMC does is score touchdowns and all the Seahawks do is allow opponents to score rushing touchdowns. Aiyuk will get one here as well but CMC gets two unless Elijah Mitchell vultures in a blowout late. He is my favorite pay up option on a slate with plenty of value elsewhere.
- David Montgomery (DK: $6300, FD: $7800)
- Zach Charbonnet (DK: $5300, FD: $5800)
- Tony Pollard (DK: $6700, FD: $7200)
SLEEPERS
- Antonio Gibson (DK: $4500)
- Elijah Mitchell (DK: $4200)
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
- Terry McLaurin (DK: $5400, FD: $6500) … Dotson is a great play here IMO as well because of the ownership leverage.
- CeeDee Lamb (DK: $8700, FD: $9200) … Call me when Dak doesn’t target him a ton. I like the value options and Ferguson a lot as well but 8+ targets against a soft secondary is very hard to ignore.
- Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $7000, FD: $7800) … If Aiyuk just steps onto the field tonight he should be able to be in the same range as Lamb and St. Brown but is much cheaper and actually lower ownership too. I can’t see him not having 6 for 70 and a touchdown.
VALUE SLEEPERS
- Brandin Cooks (DK: $4500, FD: $5700) … Washington WILL give up a touchdown through the air, it’s just a matter of deciding to pay for Lamb or roll the dice on where else it finishes. Cooks is far more reliable for me than Gallup or Tolbert.
- Dyami Brown (DK: $3000)
- Kalif Raymond (DK: $3000)
THE AMBUSH PLAY
This is a good slate to roll 2 TE to be honest with you. Logan Thomas is a little too highly owned for my liking. Lets go back to the well that was so good early this season but has cooled off and that would be Sam LaPorta no doubt about it first touchdown of the slate.
- Sam LaPorta (DK: $5200, FD: $6500)
- Jake Ferguson (DK: $3900, FD: $6100)
- George Kittle (DK: $6000, FD: $7200)
- Detroit Lions (DK: $3200, FD: $4000)
- San Francisco 49ers (DK: $3600, FD: $4500)
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
CORE BUILD
- Sam Howell
- Christian McCaffrey
- Terry McLaurin
- Sam LaPorta
Game Stacks:
- Washington/Dallas
Favorite Bets:
- San Francisco -7
- Fuck it… Detroit + Dallas + San Francisco ML Parlay
Upset Calls:
- None