WEATHER
MIL @ STL – Storms throughout the day, but clearing enough that they would be likely to play without delay.
CIN @ COL – Not as bad here, but could get some pop up storms.
My big whiff yesterday was Mitch Keller, who I have been pleased with all season but felt he wouldn’t dominate back to back starts. He did, he is so legit and for real this year and in many ways is this years Dylan Cease. So after that miss yesterday, I am going to … yep, take a gut feel stand here today, and do it with three guys who each can serve up some homers with the best of them, but also to me have the perfect setup today, except two of them are on the road
FREDDY PERALTA
Freddy is the first one I look at tonight and the benefit for him on the road is that St. Louis hasn’t been great at home and is coming off the Sunday Night Baseball travel scenario.
Reaching for 7-10 strikeouts is not a big ask in my mind. Peralta should handle the secondary batters on this lineup just fine.
Will have to monitor weather here, I would prefer the game to start in a delay than to start and then delay obviously.
MERRILL KELLY
I had Hunter Greene wrote up initially but will go with the more secure Kelly. While we could try to argue he won’t get strikeouts, I see the Athletics really struggling right now and just want to take a secure 7 inning clean start.
ALEK MANOAH
No doubt in my mind that the pitch clock has bothered Manoah, but the guy gets amped up for the Yankees and the whole stadium should be amped up all series long.
There are a ton of teams that are in okay spots today and this is one of the hardest slates to breakdown in quite some time.
My build will be to go with a balanced approach tonight across various spots.
MARINERS
Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic
Two elite level picks in Teoscar (Fenway dominator) and Kelenic (great matchup off a day off) to go along with some cheap bats throughout the lineup.
The Red Sox bullpen is the real weakness here, so if they can do enough damage on Houck then this will turn into a 7-8 run spot.
TWINS
Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Alex Kiriloff
We would use Buxton for hoping he gets on 1st AB and then steals 2nd and use Correa-AK19 to fill out the stack bringing him home.
D’BACKS
Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte
Arizona is a put the ball in play and work the bases team. After a good start Corbin Carroll went ice cold but should benefit going on the road and getting a change of scenery.
BRAVES
Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
Dane Dunning, a career 1.2 HR/9 guy has not allowed a HR all season. Thank you for the 2-HR here Dane Dunning. Olson-Riley B2B one time? Lets go.
CATCHER
- Tom Murphy
- Tyler Stephenson
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr … Vladdy just missed a game tying HR on Sunday and he wound up with a single because he didn’t run it out. I would be shocked if we don’t see him 100% locked in all series long and going off. You want Vladdy on that wall. You NEED Vladdy on that wall.
- Matt Olson
- Jake Cronenworth
SECOND BASE
- Maikel Garcia
- Owen Miller
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Manny Machado
- Nick Senzel
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Corey Seager ** – Expected Back
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Casey Michael Schmitt — Cheap
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Tucker
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Jesse Winker
- Jarred Kelenic
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge
- Wil Myers
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Kiriloff
- Marcell Ozuna
- Jesse Winker – OF – Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners
- Vladdy Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Maikel Garcia – 2B – Royals
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- BONUS …………… Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
I really want to justify going against San Diego and LA after playing. It’s the Duke/UNC, Steelers/Ravens, Yanks/Sox theory that they lose the game after they play a long series. But holy hell how do I back Brad Keller?
- Freddy Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts
- Tanner Houck over 4.5 strikeouts
- Royals ML + Twins ML Parlay