Bienvenidos a una edición de viernes de The Dongers Club, ya estamos en mayo y, aunque parece que MLB ya lleva 4 meses, en realidad han sido poco más de 4 1/2 semanas. El clima va a mejorar en aproximadamente 3-4 días y espero que los bullpens continúen desgastándose, los bateadores se calienten en todos los ámbitos y los Mets continúen apestando.
oh wait…. My bad, I went a little too extreme with the Cinco de Mayo celebration there, didn’t I? Okay, here’s what I said.
“Friends dont let friends stack the Pirates, Cardinals.”
Got it? Cool. Now on with the show.
WEATHER
As I mentioned above in Spanish, the weather is going to start warming up soon, just not quite there yet today. Chilly but comfortable conditions everywhere. As is the case on all Friday slates, if a game is going to PPD they would have done it by now get ahead of ticket sales for the weekend doubleheader. All games play.
No Coors Field tonight, rejoice!
- WSH at ARI – Roof Open
- HOU at SEA – Roof likely Closed
CORBIN BURNES
A reduced price for Burnes, who has gotten over his little early season hissy-fit start and turned in three starts in his last four with 13+ Swinging Strikes and has done it vs teams much more potent than the San Francisco Giants. In this matchup I have Burnes projected at a 30% strikeout rate and outside of a 2 out double to JD Davis in the bottom of the 2nd he should just cruise right along.
Thus, by the time you have finished your potent potables tonight you should be able to remember that you still have an SP1 going and can most definitely take down the tournament you are in today thanks to Burnes.
CRISTIAN JAVIER
The only guy that could possibly overtake Burnes today is Javier, who every once and a while pulls out a dominant 1 hit, 0 walk, 10 strikeout outing. He dominates RHH and the Mariners basically are rolling with a banged up Julio, a cooling off Kelenic and a bunch of other RHH who aren’t smashing RHP all too well lately.
Don’t love Houston much this season, but I think they give the Mariners fits again this weekend and remind them who Daddy is.
MERRILL KELLY
“The Nationals do not strike out much….”, “The roof is open in Arizona, helping the over…”, “Merrill Kelly’s price on DraftKings must be a trap….”, “Do not touch the button….”
Me:
Fuck yes I am going to trust Kelly here. What are we scared of Joey Meneses and Jeimeier Candelario?? Yes, I kind of am actually, but when you have decent talent vs bad talent which is just good vs a pitch type, I lean on the pitcher who is throwing it and in this case it’s Kelly’s change up that I hope results in a bunch of long fly ball outs tonight. 6 innings, 4 strikeouts, 2 ER? That’s enough assuming he gets the win I believe he will as well for $6,800 on DK.
MAX FRIED
Do you know what is not fun? Not being able to pound your chest in May about your pre-season prediction. Despite a stint on the IL, we remain on the Fried for NL Cy Young train and I sure as hell don’t expect everyone to remember this in August when some other NL pitcher has turned on the jets to pass him, so lets remember it now and gimme that discounted price because the DK Algo thinks the Orioles are gonna hit lefties well.
This is a K% boost for Fried, Mullins/Santander/Mountcastle all are likely to give him some whiff boost today and only Ramon Urias looks like he could pop one out of the yard tonight. Seven strong, with another 7 strikeout performance from Fried.
This isn’t a ‘smash’ Fried spot, but it will result in a ‘good enough’ fried spot.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
Kershaw vs Darvish … It’s either 1-0 or 8-7, I am leaning 8-7 pretty strongly today.
Matt Boyd vs Jordan Montgomery … It’s pretty wild that a team with Arenado and Goldschmidt cannot hit LHP unless it is Madison Bumgarner, but here we are. That said, I cannot stomach to trust 5 inning Matt Boyd, nor can I trust Jordan Montgomery vs an AL team. Somehow, someway, this game hits the overtonight with these two mirror image pitchers.
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Sean Manaea … He is cheap, dirty and facing the Brewers. He is also Sean Manaea, which is definitely not Latino.
Brad Keller … Despite popular belief, he too is not hispanic. In fact, I think he is a Falcons fan, which is sad.
Luis Castillo … It’s Friday, protect your nuts and avoid him.
TWINS
Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, Larnach
Happy LiC weekend everyone! The Twins going into Cleveland and they luck out by getting Pat Benatar on the mound for Cleveland tonight. Love the lefties and love some Kepler all weekend.
DIAMONDBACKS
Marte, Smith, Rojas
I didn’t write up the D’Backs as #1 obviously, however I think you’ll see Josiah Gray have his worst outing of the season tonight. Love some sprinkle of Arizona for the HR upside they bring.
A’s/Royals
KC: Olivares, Perez, Duffy
OAK: Rooker (Former Royal Revenge narrative), Laureano, Kemp
The 2014 American League Wild Card game between these two clubs remains one of the best games I have ever watched. They should go past the final score in that one at some point here tonight. Good weather in Kauffman Stadium, two struggling bullpens and very quietly the Royals offense is waking up with top 10 wRC+ and HH% rates over the last 2-3 weeks.
I want to pull the Hunter Dozier trigger, not sure I can outside of going full yolo on the Royals — which feels gross even to me but Olivares if he bats 2nd is a must.
PHILLIES
Turner, Bohm, Harper
I cannot figure out this version of Chris Sale, but maybe we’re seeing a trend with him struggling on the road or just struggling to put back to back quality starts together. Not ideal hitting weather for a go off game yet from the Phils and this IS their first home game after a long road trip — but Harper back in Philly after his TJ surgery? The homer is coming this weekend for sure.
Hitting overall is fairly deep today when it comes to the ‘mid-range’ options. So I strongly think you can fit in two higher $ pitchers on DK today.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez … White hot and only $4300 on DK. It’s almost a free square.
- Jonah Heim
- Gabriel Moreno
FIRST BASE
- Joey Gallo
- Alec Bohm
- Nelson Cruz
- Pavin Smith
SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte
- Jorge Polanco
- Marcus Semien
- Ramon Urias
THIRD BASE
What a set of names we have right here my folks. I mean, when you woke up today, you had to think to yourself, Tacos, Cervesas and Jeimeir Candelario, no?
- Alex Bregman … This man and the rest of the Astros love him some Seattle hitting, I’ve been looking forward to his hot streak coming this month and while I have been a few days early on other guys like Salvy Perez, I believe we see Breggy get going this weekend big time.
- Jeimer Candelario
- Josh Jung
- Josh Rojas
SHORTSTOP
Pay up at SS tonight and really Turner is in a tier of his own
- Trea Turner
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Max Kepler
- Corbin Carroll
- Edward Olivares
- Brent Rooker
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan Alvarez
- Starling Marte
- Bryce Harper … Personally, I think we get a double, 2 walks tonight and a first pitch HR on Saturday.
- Ramon Laureano
OUTFIELD – Value
- Eddie Rosario … Kremer is terrible vs lefties, but my pivot tonight is the bottom of the ATL order offensively, love the value with Rosario for $2700.
- Robbie Grossman
- Matt Vierling / Eric Haase
- Max Kepler – OF – Minnesota Twins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Edward Olivares – OF – Royals
- Joey Gallo – 1B – Twins
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
- Trevor Larnach – OF – Twins
- Brent Rooker – OF – Twins
FAVORITE BET(s)
- A’s/Royals over 9.5
- Tigers/Cardinals over 8
- MIL ML
- HOU ML
- C.Javier over 6.5 strikeouts
- Peyton Battenfield under 4.5 strikeouts