Live from SoFi stadium in Los Angeles, California the site between TCU and Georgia for the National Championship tonight.
The line on this game is bouncing between 12.5 and 13.5 in favor of Georgia with a total around 63.5. I took TCU early at 13.5 using some profit boosts that were going to expire and still lean that way given that TCU has a competent enough offense to be able to put up points on Georgia — who although they are stout on defense, isn’t dominant like they were a season ago.
You have likely heard already and will hear again tonight that it has become much less frequent for a team to repeat as National Champions and with TCU having that Cindarella feeling, my instinct is that we’re going to this come down to a one score game and less than a touchdown for sure.
In the end, I’ll still lean Georgia to win by 4, 27-23…
Wait… A TCU under?
Yeah, lets avoid betting the total on this game tonight. Just take the 13.5 and move on as a solo pick, I’ll cover some SGP picks at the end here.
INJURIES
TCU RB Kendre Miller got banged up in the Semi-Final game, he is going to give it a go tonight though, but with it being an MCL sprain I strongly think his usage is limited at best.
Georgia TE Darnell Washington is a GTD, he is actually someone who could have been a great sneaky showdown pick tonight for Georgia, so lets monitor if he actually does suit up, but on a bum ankle anything more than one catch is asking a lot.
I am based in Virginia so I cannot personally do prop bets on College players unless I use PrizePicks, which is what I will be using for the lines on players in the analysis below.
Use this breakdown to guide you through individual props and Showdown DFS lineups.
MAX DUGGAN – $11,600
I see Duggan doing his damage tonight more through TD passes than anything else, but his ability to create around the goal line in key situations is not to be ignored. You don’t have a 30 TD passing season in college and then just suddenly suck in the Championship game, he is throwing 2 TD tonight which makes me like going over 2.5 Pass+Rush TD for Duggan and I believe he is more likely to be a showdown winning pick than Bennett.
STETSON BENNETT – $11,200
Much like Duggan, you would look at the matchup and think that there’s a better path for Bennett through the air than on the ground, but not via TD passes and not in the game script I envision.
I think Georgia’s strategy tonight is going to attack TCU’s 3-3-5 defense on the ground and try to churn out long drives which ensures that TCU has to go the length of the field to score, which means Bennett is not going to air it out
TCU
- EMARI DEMERCADO – $7,000 … Not interested in this price for Demercado, although if Miller is 100% ruled out then I can see the volume and hope he gets a rushing touchdown, but really I would rather go heavy on the TCU passing game.
- KENDRE MILLER – $10,000 … Questionable, probably still gets too much ownership for me to jump on him, so I will fade.
- EMANI BAILEY – $2,200 … Would only see the field if Miller is out and Demercado is banged up or tired, but is someone I could see doing well if given the chance.
GEORGIA
KENNY MCINTOSH – $8,600
McIntosh is the number one play for Georgia tonight. He may need to replicate his receiving line from the Semi-Final game when he had 5-56-1 through the air, but he has shown big play ability on receiving options in the season and I like his chances to go over 100 all purpose yards with a score.
- DAIJUN EDWARDS – $5,400 … Nice thing about Georgia is they are a fun Showdown type build where you can use multiple RB. This is where I see the TD’s coming from for the Bulldogs tonight.
- KENDALL MILTON – $3,000 … Price is tempting and he scored in the Semi-Final game.
TCU
- QUENTIN JOHNSTON – $9,600 … Simple logic here, if you want Duggan throwing 2+ TD like I do tonight then you gotta be a fool not to go with Johnston to catch 1, if not both. He is captain viable.
- DERIUS DAVIS – $5,800
- TAYE BARBER – $5,600 … Barber delivered the TD in the Semi-Final game that we asked for, but I don’t think he is talented enough to beat Georgia DB’s.
- SAVION WILLIAMS – $4,800
GEORGIA
- BROCK BOWERS – $8,000 … Bowers was a little too quiet in the Semi-Final game, if their run game gets going though he’ll catch a 20 yard TD pass on play action.
- KEARIS JACKSON – $1,400 … I have been a big Kearis Jackson fan, and at 1400 he is exactly the type of guy to take a flyer on because he has big play ability.
- LADD McCONKEY – $7,600 … Played in the Semi-Final game, but was banged up and doesn’t entice me much tonight.
- ADONAI MITCHELL – $4,000
For note, the Kicker options in this game for Showdown are Kell & Podlesny. I would give heavy lean to Podlesny because I believe TCU would be more aggressive going for it.
SHOWDOWN LINEUP CONSTRUCTION(S)
CAPTAINS:
- TCU: Johnston, Duggan
- Georgia: McIntosh, Edwards
Showdown Build Ideas …
- Q. Johnston (C) – Duggan – Davis – McIntosh
- M. Duggan (C) – & Five Georgia Players (ideally all 3 RB)
Deep Value Plays
- Kearis Jackson
- Oscar Delp (if Washington out)
- Emani Bailey (If Miller out)
BETS
- TCU +13.5, if you can tease it up to 19.5 and tease the under up to 69.5 then that’s a nice tease play.
- 1st Quarter UNDER 13.5
- SGP: TCU +5.5, Under 71.5
- Correct Score: Georgia 34, TCU 30
- Correct Score: Georgia 27, TCU 23
Prize Picks …
Duggan OVER 2.5 Pass/Rush TD
Kenny McIntosh OVER 86.5 Rush/Recv Yards
Quentin Johnston over 5 receptions
Derius Davis over 2.5 receptions