NHL DFS – The Slapshot
Whenever teams come off extended breaks I always proceed with caution. In the case of everyone tonight/tomorrow they’ve been off for at least 4+ days and in hockey we tend to see the timing on getting high % scoring chances be off just a little bit.
So with that in mind, my strategy tonight is just try to hunt for C-W combinations rather than full line stack combinations as getting 1-2 goals from a spot might be enough and it’s a deep enough slate that we can try to just spread things out.
Buffalo vs Columbus has been PPD tonight because the Blue Jackets scoreboard called in sick when seeing Tage Thompson on the schedule… Or they had some weather issues in Buffalo and couldn’t make it down, one or the other…
HURRICANES
Aho – Jarvis – Teravainen
Do hot streaks carry over after a break? We’re about to find out as Carolina, winners of 8 in a row will be on home ice twice this week and welcome in the Blackhawks who for the most part are about as sure of a thing to allow 4 goals as they come.
Oh, and we have Sebastian Aho back on the ice tonight, skating with a very cheap Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis. Or you can ride Stastny (birthday) and Svechnikov. The value-stud combination choice is yours, I’m just offering the menu here. Carolina is hot, ride them.
MAPLE LEAFS
Matthews – Nylander – Bunting – Gioradno
Pay up decisions tonight outside of TOR include Boston, Edmonton, Dallas and Colorado. But for me I see this elite PP vs the bad PK for St. Louis and I can envision the Blues 24th ranked defense vs Centers over the last month letting AM34 have a multi-point night.
STARS
Hintz – Robertson – Heiskanen
If my theory about teams getting shots but not great scoring chances comes true then a smart route is to take a team who is going to at least get off a ton of shots. Dallas should dominate the puck possession in this game and nobody is giving up more shots against lately than the Preds.
KNIGHTS vs KINGS
VGK: Reilly Smith, Alec Martinez
LAK: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala
The Knights play much higher scoring games away from home so this one has great shootout potential and should be lesser owned than the Sharks/Canucks game.
CENTERS
You can make a strong case tonight to build around 3 centers with value at Wing on DraftKings, and certainly AM34/McDvaid both getting 20 floor games is a nice starting spot.
- Auston Matthews
- Sebastian Aho
- Connor McDavid
- Roope Hintz
- Mark Scheifele
- JT Compher
- Mathew Barzal – Sub 5k Value
WINGS
- Teuvo Teravainen – An automatic play with Aho, while he is on PP2, he’s gonna score with Aho tonight at full strength and for $3700 is the best value on the slate.
- William Nylander
- David Pastrnak … Key one off as the second line winger who can net 3 goals vs a weak OTT defense.
- Jason Robertson
- Reilly Smith
- Nick Schmaltz
- Michael Bunting
DEFENSE
- Miro Heiskanen … Sebastian Aho used to be my Eleanor, now it’s Heiskanen. So why not play them both tonight to reverse the jinx?
- Roman Josi
- Brent Burns
- Cale Makar … Whether you play COL tonight or not – keep an eye really on how much damage they do in this game. The little Xmas break might be the best thing for the Cup Hangover which also had had an early season trip over to Europe to deal with.
- Hampus Lindholm
- Mark Giordano
- Kris Letang
Value Defense:
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
- Brett Pesce
- Marc-Edouard Vlasic
VALUE
- Teuvo Teravainen
- Adrian Kempe
- Michael Bunting
- Nick Schmaltz
- Blake Coleman
- Denis Malgin
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MY PICKS …
Yeah this slate sucks for goalies, go figure…
- Jake Oettinger – Stars – 8100 … Safe and trust worthy. Boring though.
- Igor Shesterkin – Rangers – 7800
- Ilya Sorokin – Islanders – 7400
- Alex Stalock – Blackhawks – 6900 … Easily the best leverage/contrarian play on the board and maybe of the month. Everything points to the Hurricanes rolling here with Aho playing his second game since returning. But the little break could wind up throwing off the Hurricanes enough to allow Stalock to have a 35+ save game. Or he could be -16….
LINE LOCK(S) OF THE NIGHT:
Matthews – Nylander
Aho – Teravainen
FAVORITE ONE OFF STUD FORWARDS:
Auston Matthews (Leafs)
FAVORITE ONE OFF VALUE:
Teuvo Teravainen (Hurricanes)
FAVORITE ONE OFF DEFENSEMAN:
Miro Heiskanen (Stars)
BETS:
Leafs + Jets + Stars ML Parlay
Knights/Kings OVER 6
Blackhawks/Hurricanes OVER 6
Caps/Rangers U1.5 first period goals
I hate that Carolina is -430, that’s almost always a bad sign for the team favored that much in hockey
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