NHL · December 7, 2021

NHL DFS: The Slapshot – December 6th

Remember to check out our NHL Lineups page for starting line information as well as goalies and the ratings in one view for all teams.  I have also updated the NHL Dashboard to include a better view on the current day’s teams and their stats against opponent stats.   Click Here to access it directly.  If you are viewing that on Mobile I will have it cleaned up in the next 24-48 hours to be read easier, but it should come up great on Desktop/Tablet.  Below is a screenshot of today’s data.

Read this left to right with the Team column identifying the team from an offensive perspective, showing their Vegas Total/Odds for the day along with a custom (BETA) rating for this match-up.  Then you’ll see their offensive and Power Play stats before viewing their opponent’s defensive stats and the DvP by position for the opponent (full season).

So for example on the fourth line down the NY Rangers are a -125 favorite, have played 23 games and are averaging 2.9 goals per game and 28.3 shots on goal per game.  Which is funny because the Atlanta Falcons once blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl obviously and it’s amazing how the 28.3 number always comes up.   Anyways, the Rangers are facing the Blackhawks who allow 3.1 Goals Against per game, 31.3 shots against per game and have a 83.8 penalty kill rate.  The DvP rankings are how each team ranks defensive against that specific position on the season and the Blackhawks rank 29th against Centers, 24th against Left Wingers, 22nd against Right Wingers and 24th against Defenseman.

The point of me sharing this with you is that across all sports I want to continue to make the data available in a picture which is best for DFS and/or betting purposes.  I hate doing content which is always “yada yada, this team averages, that team averages, blah blah”, when it’s readily available to you the DFS player.  I know often times you might say “but Steve, I don’t have time for this, my wife wants me to take the kids to basketball practice, my kids want me to take them by chic-fil-a and god damnit I just want to have a goalie that doesn’t get me negative points, is that too much to ask for?  I dont have time for research!!!”.

I get that, and that’s why I just gave you a link to bookmark that you can quickly refer too when you are waiting in line at the drive thru or when you are hiding in your house pooping.  Or if you are the lucky type, you are sitting on your ass at a bar drinking and trying to ignore the guy next you as he gives out his hot DFS pick for this weekends NFL slate named Javonte Williams.

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KEY SPOTS TO ATTACK

Tampa Bay Lightning

Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman

Montreal ranks near the bottom in the league defensively in most categories (shots allowed, goals allowed, PK%) and should have a hard time dealing with the Tampa top line which is playing very well of late.

New York Islanders

Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey, Anders Lee

Despite only averaging sub 2 goals per game, the Islanders are in deed a team that I believe in now that they have a few key pieces back together on the top line.  If they can’t get it going vs Ottawa then just relegate them to the damn AHL because the Senators rank in the bottom 5 against all positions and are giving up 3.8 goals per game..  C’mon Isles, wake up the Law firm!

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FAVORITE GAME STACK

Florida vs St. Louis

FLA:  Bennett / Huberdeau / Reinhart

STL:  Schenn / Kyrou / Krug

If the Panthers can get some PP goals going in this one they could wind up winning what I think is a high scoring game on both sides.  It’s actually the St. Louis Power Play who I am sure is going to come through.  They hav ea 30% rate on the season and that’s their most likely path to success at home.  The STL stack is Schenn-Kyrou-Krug.  While on the Florida side they’ll be getting Aleksander Barkov back on the ice, but Jonathan Huberdeau stands out as a nice one off winger play tonight and in a full game stack scenario his line is where I would go although Sam Reinhart on the top line grades out fantastic too.

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POSITIONAL RANKINGS

Players on BOLD are the ones I view in the best spot today.

CENTERS

  1. Steven Stamkos – Top Team, Top Player, good matchup.
  2. Austin Matthews – Do not play him naked, play him with Michael Good Will Bunting who is a high probability to have a good game at nice value.
  3. Trevor Zegras – On fire of late, Ducks go into Buffalo on a B2B.
  4. Sam Bennett
  5. Brayden Schenn
  6. Ryan Strome

WINGS

  1. Artemi Panarin … Great spot for the Breadman after getting denied vs the Blackhawks he will get another shot tonight.
  2. Johnny Gaudreau … I think the Flames get overlooked in San Jose tonight.  Good spot for Johnny G.
  3. Jeff Skinner
  4. Michael Good Will Bunting
  5. Jonathan Huberdeau
  6. Kirill Kiprizov
  7. Rickard Rakell
  8. Ram Reinhart

DEFENSEMAN

  1. Victor Hedman
  2. Torey Krug
  3. Thomas Chabot
  4. Jonas Brodin

GOALIES

  1. Alex Nedeljovic (DET)
  2. Mikko Koskinen (EDM)

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SLAP … SHOTS

LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT:

Schenn – Kyrou – Krug (St. Louis Blues PP1)

CORE SKATERS:

Stamkos – Panarin – Hedman

VALUE ONE OFFS

Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner, Sonny Milano, Michael Good Will Bunting

LEVERAGE GOALIE:

Elvis Merzilikins

FAVORITE BETS:    

Panthers/BLUES OVER 6.5

Red Wings ML

Artemni Panarin to score a goal

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