A cool crisp Friday Autumn evening just makes you think of Middle Tennessee State and UCONN Husky Football does it not?  Well, if it doesn’t then clearly you need to re-check your priorities my friend because that is what we have in store on this four game College Football DFS slate tonight.

For DFS the night begins at 6 pm with a battle between the Memphis Tigers and the UCF Golden Nights.  A game which in prior seasons would have been a premiere college football matchup however both teams have taken a big step back this season after losing some key talent.  None the less we have our top game on the board since it’s an even matchup (UCF is a -2 favorite) and has two teams which are offensively stronger than their defense.

Memphis vs UCF

Memphis key notes

• QB Seth Henigan is the highest priced QB on both FanDuel (11k) and DraftKings (9k) but he comes in with a high volume attack and a nice secondary WR/TE in Sean Dykes who is priced very favorably at $5,600.  The senior had 6-57 with a touchdown against this UCF defense a year ago and makes for a nice red zone threat tonight.
• WR Calvin Austin is a wild $9,200 and is the key decision to make.  He has seen massive targets when they have a high tempo game — all he did a year ago was pop off for a huge 9-151-2 stat line — but that game also had a high powered attack all around with 99 total points in it.  He’s gotta do something similar to be a must own tonight.
• WR Javon Ivory has lined up in the slot the most for Memphis and draws the best matchup in coverage vs UCF
• Freshman RB Brandon Thomas could be the steal here today.  A high tempo game and a bad UCF rushing defense should pave the way for Thomas to produce if he continues to get his 15 carry per game average.  That would align with him having close to an 80 yard floor game with strong leverage if he gets into the box.

UCF key notes

• The lack of QB-WR combination that we have historically seen from UCF is what makes this game kind of die.  The short passing game is what beats Memphis and I am not confident that UCF will have enough trust to do that consistently tonight.  If the Knights are going to win this game, its going to be on the shoulders of RB’s Isaiah Bowser ($6,500) and Johnny Richardson ($4,700), who should split duties tonight.
• Without their top WR, we’re seeing a big target share bump in Ryan O’Keefe and Brandon Johnson, but neither excites me a TON tonight.  Overall the UCF side is where this game seems to die in my mind but you likely would not be disappointed with O’Keefe or Johnson on DK where that full point per reception is big.

Final Prediction:  Memphis wins outright and the game struggles to hit the 63 total (lean on the under)

Colorado State vs Utah State

Moving on to the best game of the night, Colorado State brings us a three headed DFS monster in their match-up on the road against Utah State.

Colorado State key notes

• Utah State is terrible at stopping the run, so David Bailey ($6,000) becomes the must play tonight for the Rams offense.  He gets 17+ carries per game and also has 2 receiving touchdowns on the season making him someone you can correlate with QB Todd Centelo.
• Speaking of Todd Centelo, he will run it quite a bit himself, rushing for 238 yards on the season on 65 carries.  At $7,400 I would much rather have his dual threat upside than spending way up on Seth Henigan for Memphis in a game that should disappoint in my mind.
• And last but not least, Trey McBride is the third leg of this CSU stack.  His overall team target share numbers are massive at 37% and he should dominate the attention overall out of all the options here.

Utah State key notes

• CSU has a decent enough defense, but I would look at the Utah State passing game which comes down to a couple options offensively.  Deven Thompkins is the stud WR who will get all the work load but I historically expect second tier WR options in home environments as they perform better at home and studs perform well on the road.  So if we are value hunting Justin McGriff for $3,600 is in a good mid range spot to have a solid floor game.
• Of all the upset spots tonight, Utah State only being a 3 point home dog here smells like it could be the upset spot of the day and if that happens it would be a higher scoring shootout in my mind because Utah State won’t get it going on the ground.

PLAYER RANKINGS

QUARTERBACK

1. Todd Centelo (CSU)
2. Chase Cunningham (MTSU)

RUNNING BACK

1. Brandon Thomas (MEM)
2. David Bailey (CSU)
3. Johnny Richardson (UCF) / Isaiah Bowser (UCF)

WIDE RECEIVER

Look for the true TE to dominate this slate tonight.

1. Trey McBride (CSU)
2. Dean Dykes (MEM)
3. Deven Thompkins (UTST)
4. Ryan OKeefe (UCF) – More likely to have high volume game at good price, better play on DK
5. Brandon Johnson (UCF) – More likely to score TD for UCF, better play on FD
6. Justin McGriff (UTST) – Value

CORE STACK

Colorado State vs Utah State:  Centelo / Bailey / McBridge / McGriff