Just five games early but if you are on FanDuel and like playing Showdown disguised as a real slate then head on over to their 2 game VERY EARLY and 3 game EARLY slate today. Wow, what a cool and unique brand they have going on there. The five games on this article will include …
- Cubs at Reds
- Indians at Twins
- Padres at Rockies — Jake Arrieta making his Padre debut in Coors!
- Mets at Giants
- Jays at Nationals — Weather issues
WEATHER
Jays at Nationals has a heavy chance of severe storms, heavy rain and just ugly potential. Which given the Nationals history means they’ll play on through it without any delays.
DONGERS CLUB PICKS
I built the model and started this site for many reasons, but one of the reasons was to be able to help let you make your own decisions on a short slate exactly like this one today. All of the obvious plays today make a ton of sense. They would be the Padres/Rockies game looks high scoring and Tyler Mahle is the top pitcher on the slate. The model agree’s. But where can we make pivots today, where could the model be missing out on some potential variance?
PITCHING
I wouldn’t fade off Tyler Mahle, he does have HR risk pitching at home in a day game, but he also has 7+ strikeout potential and isn’t extremely pricey to where he won’t be someone we have to have. The weather in Washington I think is going to keep people off bad chalk in Jose Berrios and I wouldn’t want any part of him or Josiah Gray. Jake Arrieta, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Lewis Thorpe are all get drunk, get stupid, set it and do something else type plays that nobody would ever dare recommend because no they’re not worth it. Zach Plesac is not as good away from Progressive field and also coming off one of his best career performances, both scream fade for me today. So it comes down to the Italian, Anthony DeSclafani, versus young Tylor Megill. Your pivot off Mahle is game stack those two, or take Mahle and pair him with the Italian and secure the best 1-2 combination on the slate. Which is what I would do.
- Tyler Mahle
- Anthony DeSclafani
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Again, just trust the model here, but here’s my thoughts on a few key names/positions.
- Fernando Tatis Jr … The fact that he has MPE now between SS/OF makes it easier to plug him in and harder to completely fade him. Chi Chi sucks, but really struggles against RH batters and unless you are going over to Toronto and praying they somehow play (in a VERY HUMID Nats Park) then Tatis is the anchor to lineups today.
- Franmil Reyes … Franmil needed a mental health day or something. He’s been frustrated in a lot of AB lately with calls, got tossed a few days ago and just generally hasn’t been taking the eright approach at the plate. He got the day off yesterday, and now gets a LHP which is a good split for him
- Wil Myers … Mr. Coors Field is another Padres RH batter to focus on today
- Brent Rooker / Max Kepler … My Favorite “leverage” play today would be the Twins. Kepler/Rooker and Sano all against Zach Plesac are probably the best pivot leverage on this slate because he will gain some ownership with limited options
OVERALL TOP STACKS
- San Diego (Tatis, Myers)
- Minnesota (Kepler, Rooker, Sano)
- Colorado (Blackmon, Cron, McMahon)
RISKY BUT WTF NOT PLAY
- Toronto … If this game plays they’ll murder Washington today. Hernandez, Vlad, Bichette. I don’t think the game plays however.
Chairman HR Call
Franmil Reyes