TEAM TARGETS

To say that I am less than fond of your traditional fantasy football “rankings” and whether seasonal or weekly would be a fairly accurate statement and a little bit of an understatement. What winds up happening is these rankings lead to people crossing names off in order and then ultimately having to decide between three or four players as they draft each round, questioning their strategy, wondering if someone will fall to them that they have their eye on and ultimately forgetting the whole process by week three when there are a couple injuries or someone is under performing.

I think it’s a failed approach. Do you really need someone to rank Mahomes #1 at QB? Do you really need 1-5 at RB broken down if you wind up picking 7th or 8th? No, you don’t and this is by no means a fantasy football for dummies site that I have nor is it a fantasy football for dummies article I am writing. This is my rankings and my opinions which is something that the world has plenty of when it comes to “rankings” or “sleepers” or just general seasonal advice. So let’s do this with a different perspective on things, lets circle and identify the key players which I believe will have difference making seasons for you.

In general I would put every player who might ever be considered relevant into one of three categories. Buy, hold, sell. A concept I have used many times before and a concept that is most certainly a KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid) methodology. If someone is a BUY, you are drafting them when you can and not waiting for their ‘ADP’ to hit. If someone is a HOLD they are exactly what the general consensus says they are. And lastly, if someone is a SELL then I want no part of them. Anyone not mentioned at all is irrelevant to me or considered a HOLD.

One last note. You’ll notice the Seasonal Ambush Plan is coming out mid to late August, and that is entirely by design and arguably too early. I really prefer to hone in on fantasy football final thoughts for the season by the 2nd pre-season game concluding and that’s where we are right now. It’s not a knock really against those who have already drafted and I have done a couple myself but there’s also no reason to NOT be drafting between now and Week 1 starting. In fact, you really should try to make your most enjoyable or important draft around August 30th every year.

We start first with which teams do I want to focus my drafts on. I try to eliminate teams because it helps keep the focus on teams where I believe the continuity of the offense is going to be solid throughout the season and more importantly where the opportunities for production will be strong beyond just one player. Sure, Saquan Barkley is great, but if the rest of the Giants offense is dog shit then he is one slight hiccup away from underpeforming.

TOP BUYS

Team	Quick Take Reason	Who?
Chiefs	They have Mahomes	Mahomes, CEH, Tyreek, Kelce, Water Boy, Water Girl, The Mascot, well, ok, not the mascot.
Chargers	Depth and Scheme	Herbert, Allen, Williams
49ers	Depth and Scheme	Sermon/Mostert, Samuel, Kittle
Dolphins	Efficient and Balanced	Tua, Gaskin, Parker, Gisecki
Bengals	Joe fricken Burrow	Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Boyd

There is a theme in the teams listed above and no it isn’t AFC teams but that is oddly interesting that 4 of the 5 who made my BUY list are in the AFC. No, it’s 2nd year Quarterbacks for three of the teams as the big 3 second year signal callers are all highlighted here (Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Tua). Don’t sell me on Jalen Hurts, we’ll cover him later on. I have always been a high believer in the big jump for Quarterbacks in their second season as it signals the biggest time for them to prove if they can hang in the league. The game moves slower, the playbook opens up deeper and third down efficiency improves — which is one of the two major keys to a good offense.

The other big key is having the ability to run the ball when you need too and no team to me is going to be able to do that more than the San Francisco 49ers. This is Kyle Shanahan’s bread and butter and when he can scheme you up, he will carve you up. He needs health, he needs the threat of a vertical passing game and he needs a stable of running backs. The Niners offensive line knows his scheme and should be able to create room for Sermon and Moestert to equally produce, but if you ask which one is going to finish top 5 in RB this season the answer is neither barring injury. So accept that they’ll both get some run and move on. But Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to me are the main steals on this team which will be Trey Lance’s baby by mid season at the latest — if not by Week 4.

The Chiefs are what they are, no words required and they might be even better this season.

In general, target players from these teams for upside compared to where they are drafted.

SELLS

This is the sell list and obviously there will almost always be that 1 guy that you could wind up taking from each team, but do not overspend for anyone from these teams.

Team	Quick Take Reason	If you take anyone, it should only be …
Vikings	Improved defense focus will bring offense back to not having to put up 30 garbage points each week when down 50-10.	Dalvin Cook — because you have a good high pick
Rams	Going to play slow IMO, they can’t afford to play fast and opposing teams cannot throw on them, so games are gonna be over in under 3 hours every week out.	Van Jefferson with your last pick
Texans	LOL	Keke Coutee because you don’t know how to spell anyone elses name who is available.
Falcons	Offensive Line	Javian Hawkins
Lions	Rebuilding, Swift is going to see 2 yards and a cloud of dust often.	Nobody
Steelers	Offensive Line and Ben is done.	Diontae Johnson
Bears	No identity	Cole Kmet
Patriots	Just not their identity	Jonnu Smith
Washington	I don’t believe Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer everyone else believes he is.	Curtis Samuel
Giants	Might be the worst coached team in the league and O-Line is still a year or two away from being decent. Jones has shown nothing and is the new Trubisky	Ewww

This is where we wind up ultimately “fading” some players in seasonal. Some big names which aren’t on my list include Justin Jefferson, Robert Woods, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney*, Terry McLaurin* and yes, Saquan Barkley.

Of those guys I just mentioned Mooney and McLaurin aren’t players I hate and in fact I’m not gonna say that I hate most of those players I listed, but they’re going to wind up going too high and there are pivots in each of their ranges I would rather take.

TOP HOLDS

So every other team not listed already is a HOLD, but some of them are stronger holds than others. These are the ones where I could see producing more than the general public expects.

Team	Quick Take Reason	Who?
Seattle	You have Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, you will be good	See left. Don’t sleep on whoever winds the #3 WR battle here either in deep formats, but I don’t understand why Wilson isn’t considered the automatic #2 QB this season. He should be.
New Orleans	Dominant O-Line, Coach Pedigree	Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris
Cleveland	Dominant O-Line. The difference with Cleveland is that there’s no question who will be QB and so the balance will be there. But they’re also a 2 headed monster at RB and will run more, limiting the WR upside. Love	Nobody specifically. Like all the key parts.
Philadelphia	O-Line bounce back	Quez Watkins
Denver	They have speed and potential rookie of the year at RB	Javonte Williams

The above list does not include some big name teams like Green Bay, Tennessee, Arizona, etc. I’m not hating on those teams, I just don’t have a strong take on most of them. However, I do tend to have a red flag on teams who have no desire or no clear path to running the ball effectively and that would be you Arizona.

The team who really stands out to me though is Seattle. There isn’t enough “must have” mentality out there for Wilson, Carson and Metcalf. This is a contract season for Chris Carson and if he remains healthy he will wind up as one of the top 10 RB because he’ll finish with double digit touchdowns easily in this offense. Wilson turned south quickly last season but a lot was made in regards to improving his happiness and avoiding taking a beating. With more help and hopefully another resurgence to let Russ Cook we should see him have a full MVP like season and finish as a the top QB not named Patrick Mahomes when everyone else is rushing to take a running QB.

New Orleans has a top 3 offensive line and a scheme that is always beneficial for fantasy. Even with Drew Brees now retired, they will still get points up on the board in the regular season and against middle to bottom defenses and having Atlanta twice and Carolina twice certainly helps that. Given the Thomas injury and Kamara being at the top of the draft many are overlooking the rest of the Saints skill players such as Callaway and Harris at WR.

They are what they are … Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing

Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Dallas, Baltimore, Carolina, Jacksonville, Indianapolis

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