MAY BASEBALL! Hell yes. We have waited two years for this and we get into the groooove now as we have more full weeks of games, more inter-league play, more inter-divisional play, more, more, more. Some of you probably woke up this morning with a weird feeling. You felt man, last night was just, blech. What was that. Some of you had a good April. Some of you did not. But each and every woke up this morning and had this panic. I can feel it, you had this panic knowing that you felt like you missed something and that something was MAY BASEBALL.
Why is May Baseball great? Well, it’s not quite as awesome as June Baseball and there’s always going to be something special to me about that mid August dog days of summer Wednesday night when it’s quiet as hell in the house and I’m watching some classic like the Royals vs Orioles in an empty Camden Yards. But May Baseball is when we flip the switch from the underdogs causing havoc in April and over to …. well shit, over to games like Scooter Gennett hitting 4 home runs or … well, just stop distracting me from the hype introduction into fantastic May Baseball. This is when we see guys like George Springer have their best months, Corey Kluber stops sucking, the Pirates stop winning and Paul Goldschmidt gets one month closer to American Freedom Season when he absolutely takes over the league (that’s post Memorial Day folks).
So let’s just remove the donkey slate that we had last nigh as quickly as we can from our memories. Basically everyone got a double dong in the early games and then that Mariners leverage play off Heaney wound up coming through but all for naught considering how everything else played out.
And let’s look ahead to a nice split slate Saturday. I’m not even going to gripe about how there is ZERO site synchronicity today as FanDuel is out doing the Capitalism thing by having three slates this afternoon. That’s quite alright and honestly their 4 PM Afternoon Slate isn’t that bad either. But we’re going to focus on the EARLY 1PM slate on DraftKings for this article and you can take the information and do with it what you may.
One simply cannot have a GIFtastic article without doing a GIFtastic break down of the games which are on the slate. So let’s cover the 7 games that we have on this fine Saturday, May 1st — Kentucky Derby Day (Winners at the end of the article)….
Miami Marlins (Paul Campbell) at
Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) – Mid 50’s Cross Breeze
The Marlins sadly are not going to go 5-1 this week because of Kyle fricken Schwarber??? What a joke.
Patrick Corbin continues to try and rebound his season and his career but faces a sneaky dangerous Miami team here. Let me tell you, they’re gonna be packing them into Nationals park for this one.
Detroit Tigers (Spencer Turnbull) at New York Yankees (Jameison Taillon) – Mid 50’s wind out to right field
You want to fade the game, you know you want too. Spencer Groundbull and the Yankees in a Saturday afternoon day game where the most interesting thing is Suzie on the radio bitching about some fans in the stand drinking too much? Just admit it, you want to fade this game but you just can’t do it and so you’ll put in a second lineup which stacks all the Yankees and loses. Just come to grips with it know and admit it, just like you must admit you can’t watch this GIF and not laugh.
Kansas City (Danny Duffy) at
Minnesota (Matt Shoemaker) – 80 degrees, windy out to left field
You guys want to sit there and give me shit for being a Royals fan and being a homer too much. Well, here you go. This is it. I promise.
This time is the time where Danny Duffy meets his blow up game. A Park which I never love using LHP in and against a team who is going to really profile against him and is white hot right now?
and hell yes I am going to tout Royals vs Shoemaker
Cleveland Indians (Triston McKenzie) vs Lance Lynn (Chicago White Sox) – Mid 70’s with winds up to 20 MPH
I am convinced that this game will go into the record books as the biggest difference in pitcher size/weight since Pedro Matinez faced David Wells. And uh. Yeah, make note of that weather and just lock in Abreu and Rosario thank youuu verryyy muuuch.
Baltimore Orioles (Matt Harvey) vs Oakland Athletics (Jesus Luzardo) – Mid 60’s wind blowing out
Did you know Oakland ranks like 3rd in the Majors in 2021 for home runs by stadium? Something like that… Or so the data says
Houston Astros (Jose Urquidy) vs Tampa Bay Rays (Josh Fleming)
It’s a Dome. But here’s your Tampa weather report in case you were really that much interested in it.
Chicago Cubs (Zach Davies) vs Cincinnati Reds (Luis Castillo)
If this game doesn’t get you excited for May Baseball like Free Bird then what does?
WEATHER
Yo! Did you not just read the above section??
All games play
This is NOT a good pitching slate. Do not start with Pitching when locking in your lineup(s) start with the hitting foundation you want for the day. And when we have a slate like that it’s always better to lock in on a CORE stack because the hitting is what is going to have to carry the lineup. Be bold on this slate and take a risk with your SP2 based upon which games you are not using hitters from. Here’s the top 3 candidates.
Jesus Luzardo
Luzardo is facing pesky Baltimore for the second time in one week and he struck out 8 with 2 HR allowed last time. The stadium HAS played okay for home runs this season but the fact remains it’s a big park and even in a day game with the wind blowing out it doesn’t become some massive HR park we should immediately avoid. Baltimore is a weak target here that we can consider going against. Jesus has the best CSW% on the slate and if he can just get this second straight start out of the way vs the Birds then we can let him rest tomorrow.
Jose Urquidy
The reasons I like Urquidy on this slate are more about process of elimination than him against the Rays. The park isn’t the issue, the lineup offers some strikeout upside and he has been good against LHB which is the majority of the main issues in the Rays lineup today. His price tag could keep his ownership down too and I would much rather roll Jose than Lance Lynn coming off IL.
Jameson Taillon (/Spencer Turnbull)
If you asked me which two games are likely to go under today I would point at the Astros-Rays game and the Tigers-Yankees game. Certainly nobody will be looking to roster Turnbull however he’s a better arm right now than Skubal and a better arm to calm down the Yankee chalk too, so he would be your obvious leverage play and Taillon is going to be popular because A: It’s Detroit and B: he has managed to accrue some good strikeout metrics (High K% and Moderate CSW%) this season despite giving up some runs. Consider a game stack here of the pitchers and not the hitters — although Willi Castro and Rougned Odor are two of the best values on the slate.
Longshot Pitchers I could stomach
- Zach Davies — If Winker sits he would be in the top 3. Has always done well in Cincinnati and I like the Cubs to win this game
- Patrick Corbin — It really is a punt tbh. Can get 5+ strikeouts to offset a couple homers and get you 10-12 points. This is not a slate to expect a big score from SP’s.
Primary Teams/Stacks
Minnesota Twins vs KC Royals
Buxton/Cruz, Donaldson — Dozier/Soler/Value Royals
Danny Duffy has been tremendous for Kansas City to start the season but as the weather warms up so do the old knees of Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz which adds two massive LHP destroyers to this lineup which has been carried by Byron Buxton so far. We even saw a resurgent Mitch Garver earlier this week. It’s time to shoot to thrill, play to kill, the Twins have the bats in the heat to fire at will. This projects as the top game stack spot on the board from the model and a lot of that is generated by value plays Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier from Kansas City. Buxton/JD/Nellie will cost a pretty penny so if we’re chasing this game due to very warm temps & favorable winds then there’s no reason not to like Royals bats vs Sketchers Shoemaker on the other side.
Oakland Athletics
Mitch Moreland, Jed Lowrie, Mark Canha
Picking on Harvey obviously. Decent weather and Oakland should bounce back tonight. Mitch Moreland is the top value play in this spot so if you stack Oakland rolling him over Olson will feel like a tough call but it’s the logical one.
Chicago White Sox
You either go all in on White Sox or completely fade this game for hitting.
Finally some great hitting conditions for the Chi-Sox and Triston McKenzie does have good stuff to project as someone who can stay in the league long term, but he hasn’t been as wow in his second round this year in 2021 which is to be expected with a young arm.
The other side in this game is Cleveland against Lance Lynn and he dominated them a couple weeks ago before going on the IL. Now coming off the IL is not a spot where Lynn should go off again and with the good hitting conditions the Indians have started to hit a little better. Good spot for Rosario and Jose Ramirez, but mostly — Eddie Rosario.
Other favorable hitting spots
Honestly there are quite a few today…..
Chicago vs Cincinnati
This should be your sneaky game. Whenever we can get Great American Ballpark at low ownership we jump on board and the Cubs get a full good split today with their lefties facing off against Castillo. He’ll continue to pitch better but the HR upside here is as good as any other location.
You’ll need some value believe it or not today, and the best areas to look are if there is no C listed below who fits your stack then take a cheap guy there (Happy Sandy Leon day!) and 2B/SS are the next best spots for value outside of Moreland, Mitchell from Oakland at 1B.
CATCHER
- Yasmani Grandal
- Salvador Perez – Might sit today in favor of Cam Gallagher, but Salvy is +.400 wOBA lifetime in Target Field and 7-13 with 1 HR against Matt Sketchers the Shoemaker.
- Tucker Barnhardt
FIRST BASE
- Anthony Rizzo – Why is Rizzo $3900? Who the hell sent the memo asking Rizzo to be $3900 in Cincinnati??
- Mitch Moreland / Matt Olson – Mitch is playing ok right now and $1700 cheaper, start with him but if Olson does play he’s alright if you have $ available.
- Jose Abreu
SECOND BASE
- Rougned Odor
- Jed Lowrie
- Whit Merrifield
THIRD BASE
- Josh Donaldson
- Kris Bryant – Given his start it’s kind of funny that he is sitting here at $4400 while DJ LeMahieu is $5500
- Yoan Moncada
SHORTSTOP
- Miguel Rojas
- Willi Castro
- Punt the position with a choice of Andres Gimenez – Nicky Lopez – Freddy Galvis – Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Byron Buxton – Buxton has been on fire and should Ambush Duffy. You’ll find it challenging to get him AND Cruz. But neither is bad.
- Nelson Cruz – All time leader in homers on a Saturday among active players.
- Eddie Rosario – F’n love Rosario today. Lynn’s struggles vs LH batters have returned and I’d pick on him coming of IL.
- Garrett Cooper
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Luis Robert
- Adam Duvall
- Jesse Winker / Tyler Naquin – Winker could rest, if not he’s a Tier 1 borderline play.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jason Heyward
- Jorge Soler
- Ian Happ / Joc Pederson – I dont think Joc is activated today, but hopefully Ian Happ gets a nod.
The Dongers Club
- Byron Buxton – OF – Twins – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jorge Soler – OF – Royals
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Twins
- Willi Castro – SS – Tigers
- Mitch Moreland – 1B – Athletics
- Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
- Rougned Odor – 2B – Yankees
- Garrett Cooper – OF – Marlins
- BONUS ………………….. Hunter Dozier – 3B/OF – Royals
BETS
- Nationals / Marlins UNDER 8.5 … 5-2 type Marlins win but it’s going to be a bullpen game
- Royals / Twins OVER 9
- Cleveland Indians ML +158 … Goes against the DFS stack but this is good value
- Cubs ML +145 … Favorite bet
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalk Pitchers
- Lance Lynn
- Luis Castillo
- Jose Urquidy
- Jameson Taillon
Chalkiest Stacks
- Yankees – Cheap guys. Only the cheap guys, that’s all you want!
- Nationals – I’ll fade a chalky bad Nationals team when it’s not 80+ degrees at home.
- Twins – You’ll see a Twin or two in every lineup, you won’t see 5 Twins in a lineup though.
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP
Well ………. you see ….
What … had … happened was …
Honestly?
Honest truth?
It’s the Royals
Best Leverage Spots
- Cubs vs Castillo
- Eddie Rosario vs Lance Lynn