Good morning, I hope your Sunday coffee was warm (who the hell drinks cold coffee on a Sunday?) and your Sunday Brunch was tasty. Personally my coffee was quite delicious and the sausage and scrambled eggs were just enough to get this fine April 11th day started.
First pitch today is at 1:05 PM EST in Camden Yards and PNC Park, two stadiums where the home team generally plays well in front of fans on a Sunday and two stadiums who do not have weather issues on this fine Sunday TEN GAME SLATE. How about them apples?
Let’s get right into those games with weather issues
WEATHER
We got through two days in Dunedin without the highly anticipated storms and the good news is that they waited out last night and still got the game in — so we have a pretty strong feeling that the field drains well which it should given that it’s in Florida and it’s gonna rain every day about 5 times no fewer than 30 minutes each time.
Angels at Jays – They want to get the game in and Toronto is home again tomorrow night while the Angels have to go to Kansas City for a night game. They will wait this one out as long as they can which means yes, Tanner Roark and Alex Cobb have to pitch today.
Miami at New York … It’s raining. It’s gonna be raining later. Then more rain. Then tomorrow more rain. And this is a divisional game. I’d be shocked if this one plays.
Detroit at Cleveland … Just partly cloudy with winds blowing 10 MPH out to right field. She’s a good to go
KC at Chicago … Should get this one in after the PPD yesterday
San Diego at Texas … HUUUUUUUUGE test here. Almost all of the games with the Rangers last year in the afternoon were roof closed because the season was dead of summer but great chance they have the roof open for this one and that would finally turn it into a decent hitters spot.
Copy and paste from last night’s pitching breakdown where I wasn’t expecting any pitcher to get higher than a 20 and sure enough the highest score was an 18.7. Unfortunately that highest score game from the game with a 2 hour rain delay and against the top team I was on (Angels). But after Matz the next highest score was 12.4 — but if you think pitching sucked last night you are a being a whiny bitch. The lowest score was -3.65 from Quintana, then 0.35 from an opener, 2.35 from Jeff chalky Hoffman and yeah, Zach Eflin only got 4.7. But think about this for a moment. The highest score from an owned player was Ian Anderson with 12.4 vs Eflin for 4.7. This is an 8 point swing on a slate where we didn’t project anyone to score very high. Eight points is easily made up from one swing of the bat and when you factor a lot would hvae had Anderson+Hoffman (14 points) compared to say pairing Paddack and Eflin (10) or Eflin/Zimmerman (14) then you realize — pitching didn’t matter one lick last night.
Now, I don’t think today will wind up being as extreme because we have up to 4 more games (likely 3) and so more teams come into play and higher chance of some pitchers doing well, but it’s just not a slate where there are any free squares out there. So I say this and I tell you that when building a 2nd or 3rd lineup today you should definitely look at pitchers who might make you uncomfortable but have some factor which bodes well for them. Could be weak opponent, could be good ballpark, could be some inside information you got on the quality of sleep they got. Doesn’t matter, today’s a day to get off the reservation on pitching.
That doesn’t mean play Tanner Roark
DANIEL PONCE de LEON
Whenever there is a pitchign slate like this I want to focus on someone who can strike-out batters to get out of a jam or get the most out of a limited appearance. PDL has been dominant vs LH batters in his brief Major League career with a K% rate north of 30% against them and he should see quite a few of those today. Lots of wind blowing out in St. Louis today which is a concern for giving up some homers but I also would make the Cardinals my #1 bet today to avoid losing the home series.\
ADRIAN MOREJON
I’m not a Morejon fan long term, but he got beat up in his first start against a really good team vs LHP (Giants). The Rangers are still a bad lineup and if the roof does get closed in Texas then he’s arguably the #1 play on this terrible slate.
TREVOR WILLIAMS
Death. Taxes. T-Will at home on a Sunday. Oh wait, he’s not a Pirate anymore, which brings into the Pitchers vs former team getting blown up narrative. On the other hand the Pirates are terrible offense and they among all teams should know that you beat Williams with RH bats. Well, let’s check out their lineup. Lefty, Righty Phillip Evans who homered yesterday so yeah that’s not happening again, Lefty(S), Lefty, Kevin bleepin Newman (ok, he’ll rope a double), Lefty (Gregory Polanco BTW, strikeout), Righty and Lefty. Idiots. Pirates can’t win two in a row even against another bad team like the Cubs can they? Williams isn’t one of those “get strikeouts to negate damage” type guys that PDL is, but I’d rather go with him than Logan Allen for Cleveland who shouldn’t pitch as long.
Seriously ya’ll. Those are the names today.
Just missed the list:
Dylan Cease, Jorge Lopez, Jordan Montgomery (*** Monty is the best here, He is definitely in play, but at $9,900 that’s a bit steep on DK to trust ***). If the roof in Texas looks open then Montgomery would likely swap in for Morejon in my top 3 list.
Thoughts on another guy
MATT SHOEMAKER
So it appears that Shoemaker is the trendy pick today and when I first heard about this I laughed it off and said no I won’t mention him. I’m definitely not leading with him but I did want to offer up this one thought for you today. A few years ago the Pirates were known for taking veteran pitchers who were trending down and revitalizing their career — remember Francisco Liriano? I know the Pirates get ripped for how they let young pitchers get away but that’s entirely on the front office. So I offer you this thought in regards to Shoemaker with the Twins (who face a bad Mariners team today). Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Those are the two names that leap out to me when I look at Shoemaker with the Twins. The Twins took them in and got a fantastic season out of Odorizzi and Pineda was actually alright back in 2019 as well. Could that be the case with Shoemaker here as well? Something to monitor.
As far as the maker of Shoe’s is concerned today, he’s going to give up a solo HR to Kyle Seager, but can probably get 5 2/3 IP today with minimal damage. He won’t break the slate.
ORIOLES
Franco, Santander, Stewart
Maikel Franco walks into the clubhouse. Maikel Franco see’s Nick Pivetta on the mound. Maikel Franco says to himself, finally, my turn! The former Phillie vs the former Phillie. Great weather today in Baltimore and the Orioles overall despite striking out a good amount are hitting with some good power across the lineup, or at least good Camden power. Mancini, Santander, Mountcastle, Franco and welcome to the 2021 season D.J. Stewart!
INDIANS
Rosario, Ramirez, Franmil
We have Franmil Reyes absolutely locked in right now against the Tigers — which is VERY interesting considering Jorge Soler is also a player that destroys Detroit pitching and I’m starting to think that Detroit just doesn’t know how to pitch to RH power bats who hammer fastballs. None the less, we have Jose Urena on the hill today making his second appearance in the American League and his first one didn’t exactly go that well. After we got burned on Friday by the Teheran scrach I say it’s time to lock back in on Eddie Rosario today.
ANGELS vs BLUE JAYS
Update … Angels toying with starting Ohtani per one report but it sounds like it will remain Cobb.
Of course I am going to pick on Tanner Roark and Alex Cobb. Bad weather obviously diminishes the comfort for some to touch this game — especially after they’re a bit tired from a very very late game last night, but there’s going to be home runs every game in this stadium and even though I wouldn’t expect 15-1 today, we gotta love Jared Walsh for the Angels and this is a horrible match-up for Alex Cobb against Toronto’s core guys (Biggio-Bichette-Vlad)
CATCHER
- Danny Jansen
- Jacob Stallings
- No reason to pay up here.
FIRST BASE
- Rowdy Tellez
- Jared Walsh
- Trey Mancini
- Paul Goldschmidt
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Cesar Hernandez
- Marwin Gonzalez
THIRD BASE
Deepest position on the board today. Can roll with Ramirez, Franco and Biggio (DK) in stacks here but Devers and Machado could not be better one off’s. No reason to get cute at 3B, although I did say Kyle Seager would homer.
- Jose Ramirez
- Rafael Devers
- Manny Machado
- Maikel Franco
SHORTSTOP
Here’s what I don’t get about FanDuel. They have guys who don’t play positions anymore, but previously did, listed at MPE. Yet Machado can’t get SS w/ Tatis out (I realize he isn’t playing there, but still if we’re just gonna give MPE away then lets just give it away). This is a weak position.
- Bo Bichette
- Andres Gimenez
- Niko Goodrum
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Eddie Rosario
- Franmil Reyes
- Max Kepler
- DJ Stewart
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- The Angels
- Byron Buxton
- Randy Arozarena
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Josh Naylor
- Anthony Santander
- Joc Pederson
THE DONGERS CLUB
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Indians
Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Blue Jays- Jared Walsh – 1B – Angels
- DJ Stewart – OF – Orioles
- Joc Pederson – OF – Cubs
- Jacob Stallings – C – Pirates
- Beaux Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- BONUS ………………. Kyle Seager – 3B – Mariners
BETS
- Brewers / Cardinals U 8.5
- Orioles ML