For many years the American League East has been a rinse and repeat fantasy division. The Orioles have not been getting worse and worse the last five years and in a hitter friendly stadium give up a ton of home runs (and hit many too), the Blue Jays are sometimes fun but not very good and the Rays wanted to be what the Red Sox and Yankees always seem to be.
That changed in the pandemic shortened 2020 season and many signs point to it continuing to change more in 2021 going forward. The Yankees are still the elite in the division because they have a great deal of depth and are rebuilding the pitching staff in what looks like a promising way for the playoffs. The Blue Jays are the new darlings who should unseat Tampa as the second best division in the eyes of many and the Orioles, yes the Orioles, might actually be better than Boston by the end of the season.
All in all, this division is loaded with some of the best young talent in the game that we’re gonna seat take over more this year and in the next few years and will be very relevant every night in DFS. Let’s dive into the breakdown.
#1. NEW YORK YANKEES
No drama here, the Yankees are going to win the AL East and I don’t think you’ll find many who want to come out and grab attention by saying otherwise as there just is no point. The hitting is very straight forward so long as they can stay healthy. Between Judge, Stanton, Voit and Sanchez they have four guys who can legit hit 30+ bombs and a couple of them can get hot enough to hit 40 (or 50 in the case of Stanton). They shouldn’t have any issue with HR distance dropping either in their park and getting games in Baltimore and whichever stadium Toronto is in (more on that later).
Throw in the .300+ hitting DJ LeMahieu, a nice veteran switch hitter in Aaron Hicks and a potential breakout season from Gleyber Torres and this lineup just needs no real breakdown. So let’s dive into the things that we know about each of these guys.
I would be shocked if DJ LeMahieu had another season like last year where he had a .226 ISO but he does not strike out much and while leading off will always have good value. Clint Frazier destroys cutters but is gonna strike out a ton. Luke Voit is the same way, but he doesnt strike out as much and unlike Frazier, he will play every day because he is a legit bat for the Yankees (and a sneaky MVP candidate). Sorry if all this sounds boring but the Yankees are a team I rarely stack as an offense at home because I know they won’t hit in the 9th inning often and honestly its a bunch of random home runs on a given night that you’re trying to pin down in a lineup that can do 9 deep on most slates. Add in usually high prices and we just have a team who more often than not will be a pass when they’re at home.
The kid who could return to his ‘breakout’ form this year is Gleyber Torres. There are many guys who just never got going in the short 60 game season last year, which in many ways was a 1 month season and then “just dont get hurt” for the guys going into the playoffs. Gleyber in his debut 2018 season hit .271 with a really lucky .321 BABIP and 24 home runs. He followed that up with correcting the BABIP but still increasing his average and showed insane power going up to 38 home runs in 2019. Going into 2020 he would have been viewed as one of the top young hitters in the game a notch below the Acuna’s and right above the Moncada’s (had to get the Acuna Moncada reference in there once!) of the game. But he had a bad 2020 season, slugging just .368 with 3 HR and 8 doubles in a limited and injury derailed pandemic season. Now he suddenly is the forgotten hitter by many and I can see him adjusting back to his 2019 form this season.
Where the Yanks can become elite is with the pitching and it might sound crazy to hear that considering they were not bad last year. But they have gotten rid of James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka and are taking a gamble on Corey Kluber rebounding and added a sneaky add in Jameson Taillon. Taillon is re-united with former teammate Gerritt Cole and I expect him to have a very good season earning a spot at the end of the Yankees rotation. They’ll become the dominant team that everyone thinks of them if Deivi Garcia and some of the bullpen arms come to form. The guy I am most interested in tracking is Clarke Schmidt who had a brief cup of coffee in 2020 but looks poised to be a mainstay on this staff going forward.
Player to buy into: Gleyber Torres
#2. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
What is not to love about the Blue Jays lineup? From Vlad Jr, to Bo (“Beaux”) Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel and Cavan Biggio this team is loaded with former big leaguers kids who are more than equipped to handle their stay in the big leagues. The Jays made a bold move in my mind by bringing in George Springer, but he should pay off immensely early in this contract with his ability to hit many pitches from the lead off spot and also give them a little veteran leadership in a close pennant race. The big question with the Jays is going to be when do they settle into an actual consistent lineup? Players like Marcus Semien, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel can hit all over the lineup. Vlad Jr. is anywhere from a #3 stick to a #6 stick and Bo Bichette should be locked into the #2 hole but I can see him sliding down to #3 as well. There’s going to be a lot of tinkering if guys are struggling and that can make things a little difficult to track in DFS. But overall, there’s not much else to say other than we love the Jays lineup no matter where they play.
As for where they play. Welcome to TD America Ballpark down in Dunedin, Florida (aka, west of Tampa). The park no doubt is going to be favorable for hitting given that it’s an outdoor stadium in Florida and the dimensions for lefties are extremely favorable. The Jays are slated to play up to half their games here, maybe less, maybe more. But if they aren’t in Dunedin they are likely to be in Buffalo where they played last year (extremely good for hitting) or maybe back home in Toronto (also not a bad park). So no matter what the Jays have lots of things in their favor for them offensively this year.
The pitching …
Not so much. Hyun-Jin Ryu will get his second year leading this rotation in the AL and I was a bit shocked by his okay first year last year. He remains the ace on this team and is one of a few lefties who can rack up the strikeouts when they are on. Ryu is joined by fellow former NL pitchers Steven Matz and Robbie Ray. Neither is exactly immune to giving up the long ball and in the case of Ray, we know he can be an extremely frustrating pitcher in DFS. Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Tanner Pearson(*) and Trent Thornton are other viable starters for a team that should go to a 6 man rotation at times this season. If nothing more than to spread out the beatings that they are going to take.
Bet the overs on Jays games.
Player to buy into: Bo Bichette
#3. TAMPA BAY RAYS — UNDER 85.5
Tampa can finish 3rd or I can see them completely falling apart and finishing last and a lot of that is going to be due to their strength from a year ago now being a liability at times. The pitching staff has lost Blake Snell and Charlie Morton from the starting rotation but they’ve also lost some key bullpen arms and that’s where things start to mount up. Back is Chris Archer and they have added veterans Rich Hill and Michael Wacha to take the ball and give them 80 pitches or so every 5 days. But the lack of a true 7+ inning shut down arm has to catch up with the Rays at some point. I love Tyler Glasnow but he isn’t that guy yet and is going to have to be that from day one for Tampa to reach the playoffs again.
Since they remain in a terrible home stadium, the overall offensive numbers for the Rays should remain watered down somewhat. All road divisional games will be extremely favorable for them so consider Tampa an auto fade at home and auto play on the road this season. Arozarena is going to have to keep proving it to me for me to trust him over the long haul, but Meadows – Lowe and eventually the #1 prospect in the game Wander Franco give them some nice bats to target in optimal hitting parks.
As I write this, Nick Anderson (Designated Closer) has been moved to the DL and is out until post All-Star Break. Things are very dicey for the Rays.
They could use a better catcher though IMO.
Player to buy into: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
Player to avoid: I don’t trust the pitching as much as others might.
#4. BOSTON RED SOX
The Rex Sox have 74 and 88 written all over them. They will flirt with .500 for about 3 months and then completely start to taper off. There just isn’t enough talent on this team to be a consistent threat and I suspect they will remain a couple years away from re-competing back at the top of the AL East. You should know that no other team in the American League will have more DFS chalk associated with it and flop than Boston. They play in a cold city for 2+ months of the season and they’re often just overhyped because of their name. One major improvement for the lineup though is the depth as they have the ability to hit anywhere in the lineup which they did not have the past few years as a 1-5 only team. The bad news? They can suck anywhere in the lineup too. I don’t care where Verdugo, Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Marwin Gonzalez or Bobby Dalbec hit. They’ll be hot one day and then cold the next. Streaky team. Book it.
The pitching is terrible. Sorry, if you are getting hyped over Nate Eovaldi as the savior along with returning from medical scare Eduardo Rodriguez and Garrett Richards then we just end the conversation right there. Bullpen is much improved. Starting rotation is atrocious.
Player to buy into: Rafael Devers could have a dominant season all by himself
Player to avoid: Rodriguez, Richards, Eovaldi
#5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES — OVER 64.5
I grew up going to many a Baltimore Orioles home games and watching my Royals face them when they came to town — along with watching those really good 90’s Orioles teams compete in the playoffs. It’s a fantastic baseball atmosphere when they are good and it is terrible when they are bad. Well I have good news for Orioles fans, I love the direction they are headed in. The farm system is really building up strongly and they have both a core of hitters who look the part along with a core of young pitchers that will be better than folks expect.
Unfortunately it’s gonna be another couple years before we get there but we can still play the OVER on this team. I love the Maikel Franco addition, a guy who has enough pop to hit 25+ homers in this stadium and someone who fares extremely well against sinkers (a pitch that can be dangerous in Camden) he should have a very good season if he can stay healthy for Baltimore.
Ryan Mountcastle is the DFS legend to know here, he is going to be someone we utilize alot when facing mid to bottom tier pitching. He prefers those middle of the road velocity pitchers who try to get away with their secondary pitches instead of an elite fastball. Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, DJ Stewart, Trey Mancini are all players who can be considered good plays when they are in good recent form.
Baltimore overall is going to put up 7+ runs in more games than most of the teams in the American League. They just can’t quite stop the other teams from doing the same yet. But soon. Soooon.
Player to buy into: Ryan Mountcastle, Maikel Franco, Keegan Akin
Player to avoid: I mean, they’re the Orioles. Are you really rushing to target anyone here?