The NHL Hockey season is here and the NHL Dashboard page is still in BETA mode as we kick things off. I will be tweaking it quite a bit over the first few days to get some accurate ratings put together, however the one thing which is ready and live is the Starting Lineups page which is going to refresh the projected line combinations for all teams throughout the day.
A couple house keeping notes. I will prioritize pricing plays based upon DraftKings where it’s harder to find value sometimes, but generally every play listed is also applicable on FanDuel. If you are playing FanDuel make sure that you read the Manifesto which covers the rule changes there this season.
You can expect the article to be out between 3PM and 5PM each day there is an applicable main slate. In the case of today obviously the slate locks earlier so the article is out earlier. But the general window is still 2-4 hours before lock. If there are less than four games, I will not have an article.
Let’s kick things off on tonight’s five game slate with some pre-season bets
Odds to win Stanley Cup
- Colorado Avalanche (+600)
Biggest Longshot Division Winners
These are all longshots based on best value available. My favorite of the ones below is Florida in a division that is in shambles all over.
- East: Buffalo Sabres (+2000)
- North: Edmonton Oilers (+450)
- Central: Florida Panthers (+1000)
- West: No pick, its Colorado or Vegas
Wednesday, January 13th
STACKS
Vancouver Canucks (vs the Flying McDavids)
Bo Horvat – Nils Hoglander – Quinn Hughes
The Canucks draw the assignment of being the first team out of the gate to take on the machine known as Connor McDavid, who is an almost automatic it seems every opening night and along with Auston Matthews has to be the most obvious guy on the entire slate to score a goal. But if we’re looking at a stack option it’s on the other side where the Canucks come into the season with some key notable additions which makes them a nice opening night dog to look at as well (+105 slight dog).
The key player in this stack is Bo Horvat ($5,900) who will be centering the second line and rookie Nils Hoglander ($2,900). Horvat carried a really high xGoal ratio last year of 26% which would have put him at second on this entire slate ahead of guys like MacKinnon, Crosby and yes Connor McDavid. Horvat has points in the last three meetings vs the Oilers and should be able to have another solid game tonight. Quinn Hughes on the defense needs no explanation, he is an elite option and should have another solid season because they certainly aren’t going to defend much so they’ll need his offense.
Correlate with: Connor McDavid (EDM)
Colorado Avalanche
Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen – Cole Makar
This stack plays out a little better on FanDuel where a guy like MacKinnon is so valuable because he seems to attribute to every goal in some way, so correlation being key there it’s great to stack Colorado when you touch them on FanDuel. On a slate with just five games it’s a little odd to say that the Avs will be contrarian but that’s the case with so many stars going in the other games tonight. The Blues have a very well respected defense but you wouldnt know it if you watched the Avs play them. In my mind the Avs are too fast and MacKinnon is averaging nearly 5 SOG in the last four with 2 goals and 6 assists over that span. He’ll contribute tonight and it’ll likely be a tic-tac-toe goal when he and the others do.
Correlate with: Hoffman and Schwartz from the Blues
Philadelphia Flyers
Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny – Oscar Lindblom – Ivan Provorov
Hello gritty!
Oscar Lindblom’s first game back in Philadelphia (although with no fans) after recovering from cancer and he gets to skate on the top line with Coots and T.K. The Flyers are looking to build upon a great season last year and they’ll need Konecny to have a great season if they’re going to win this division and it starts tonight vs the Penguins.
Correlate with: Carter Hart (Goalie)
POSITIONAL ONE OFFS
Auston Matthews (TOR) – Death. Taxes. AM34 on opening night.
Mike Hoffman (STL) – Only $3,200 and skating on the Blues top line. A goal scorer as good as Hoffman is too good to ignore at $3,200
Victor Hedman (TB) – With Nikita Kucherov sidelined for the season Tampa is going to need some production from elsewhere and Hedman is a contrarian idea on how they’re going to get it done. He’s obviously one of the best D-men in the game and should factor heavily on their PP.
TOP VALUE PLAYS
Dylan Strome/Alex DeBrincat (CHI) – Skating with Patty Kane on the Hawks top line
Nilson Hoglander (VAN)
Mike Hoffman (STL)
Zack Kassian (EDM) – As always, a fat dead mouse skating with Connor McDavid would be a good play.
Jason Zucker (PIT)
Nick Suzuki & Josh Anderson (MTL)
GOALIES
Carter Hart (PHI) … CarterGOAT. This years Vezina trophy winner starts us off with a nice 3-1 win at home.
Malcolm “Black Jesus” Subban (CHI) … Tonight’s get weird play. We start off the season going contrarian a TON with goalies and facing the defending champs might seem like crazy sauce with a depleted Chicago lineup, but one thing NHL DFS has proven is that you need shots against more than just the win safety net. Subban should see a ton of shots tonight. I just hope he uses his powers to see them bounce off him and not go by him.
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT
What is the line lock??? It’s the line that is expected to have multiple goals scored across the three players making it a fantastic correlation play. One goal? Not bad. Two goals? Fantastic. Three goals? We’re locking it up. No excuses here on the line lock, we do not accept 0’s. We have a first period, a second period and a third period to get this goal. We don’t wait for Overtime for a bail out line lock goal here…
No Overtime?
What about the Islanders stack two years ago?
Oh, that’s bullshit.
Yeah. Bet you forgot about that. Tuesday night you made me stack a New York Islanders stack and made me play Josh Ho Sang?
Yeah, completely different situation?
How?
What do you mean How? He was a very very highly touted elite prospect and he the whole team was into him, he was very into his first NHL experience.
Oh gimme a break
TONIGHT’S LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Bo Horvat – Nils Hoglander – Quinn Hughes (VAN2/PP1)
ONE OFF STUD WINGER: None, pay up for center (Auston Matthews)
ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Mike Hoffman (Blues)
TOP DEFENSEMAN: Quinn Hughes (Canucks)
GPP FADE TEAM OF THE NIGHT: Tampa Bay Lightning
FAVORITE BETS:
- Canucks/Oilers OVER 6 (Take at 6.5 too)
- Blackhawks ML +210
FANDUEL THOUGHTS
Im gonna add a quick example of what I am leaning as my core build method on FanDuel this year. The process historically was C-W-D, C-W-D, two one off Wingers or finish a 4 man stack. But with the two utility spots its really opened it up to do a value correlation and stud build. The huge difference between FD and DK scoring is that there are no bonuses simply for shooting the puck a 5th time on goal and there are bonuses instead for power plays. FanDuel also has a higher ratio on the assist points to goals than DraftKings so getting the G-A-A tic-tac-toe correlation is HUGE on there. At minimum, you need two correlations in your lineup IMO. Here’s a sample build that I kind of like when you want to get the star one offs.
For tonight, a sample build I really love is
Horvat – Hoglander – Schmidt (his value over Hughes on FD fits better)
Couturier – Konecny
AM34 & Marner in the Utility spots
Vezina winner in goal
and then a $4200 defenseman
You get a 3 man correlation play (with variance on the D-man in Schmidt).
You get a good top line 2 man correlation in Coots and Konecny
You get AM34 and Marner who are projected to be skating together as well
So in theory we have a Tier 1 play (AM34/Marner), a Tier 2 play (Coots/Teeks) and a Tier 3 play (Horvat/Hoglander/Schmidt)